Homeless

At the moment I'm homeless. In fact, I've been homeless since August 1st.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not standing on a corner with a pile of Big Issues by day and sleeping under a sports stand at night. In fact, I have the whole third floor of a Georgian townhouse, once occupied by William Pitt, in the centre of Bath. There are tourists who have travelled from the other side of the planet to enjoy the view that I see every morning when I get out of bed.

But I'm a guest here. And that raises some questions.

A bit like my possessions being housed in a lockup, not having somewhere that I call home at the moment is making me stop taking these things for granted.

Bod

I have scanned all of my paperwork. Every photo of my children, every business invoice, every school report, every divorce letter, all the pages of instruction manuals to appliances I no longer own. This statement normally elicits one or more of the following three reactions

1) That must take forever

2) You'll be sunk when your computer crashes

3) I bet you can never find anything.

In fact,none of these is true

1) The first scan is from xxxx about a computer virus called Melissa. Nowadays, I stick all of the mateiral that I wish to scan into a wooden clothes peg. On a Sunday, after I've finished with the Sunday paper, I will dig out the scanner and process the week's paperwork. In the spirit of accurate research, I've timed each of the last three sessions. The average is 34 minutes.

2) There's a two word response to that. Back up.

There are currently two complete sets of scans on two different machines, each in a different location. They are also all backed up to the cloud, using Jungledisk. At the time of writing, the whole lot takes up about 11Gb of space.

As well as that, using a macro in XP, each of the databases is compressed down. A 1mb file now takes up about 100k. There are three additional sets of that database - one on a netbook, one on a different machine, one on a USB thumbdrive which goes everywhere with me.

3) Well, that's not true either. Each scan is numbered and then there's a database with a summary description of each file. A search using "find" in a spreadsheet program will reveal the number of every photo or every Orange invoice. And then I can refer back to the database and find what I'm looking for. It depends on the quality of the description in the first place - which is no different from any storage system anywhere. But this could be so much better

Return to Stuff

I didn't manage to write what I was hoping to last Friday. And I'm sitting in a basement at the moment squatting on someone else's connection so now isn't the right moment either.

Suffice it to say that I went back to the lockup to get five things; my passport; some heel balm, a new protector for my ipod touch screen; my old iphone and a bag of paperwork.

I arrived at Dave and Sarah's with a sleeping bag and one holdall of stuff. I've brought a few jackets on top of that, otherwise, that's all I've needed in the last week.

Stuff

Time stamp. It's 11.16am, Friday 31st July.

I'm sitting outside the cafe in Alice Park. I'm currently homeless.

All of my possessions are now in a lockup on the Lower Bristol Road

This is supposed to sound very bad. And actually it's very exciting.

And Russ has just come over and told me about what's new with him and he's just come up with a line from a fridge magnet that a friend of his gave him - "Life's too short for drinking bad wine."

I was talking to a college friend of mine today. He's had enough of the work that he's doing and wants to move on. He's gone through different stages he said. Later, I found the description elsewhere - the five stages of dying described by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross, the psychologist who wrote On Death and Dying: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance.”

Like the Joker said...

Spent Monday filming a friend of mine on the 4th plinth in Trafalgar Sq. And spent the rest of the week thinking about what I saw there.
As the Joker says in The Dark Knight, "If you're good at something, don't do it for free."
Which is exactly what we were doing

FREE

Last week, Chris Anderson visited Bristol to talk about his new book, Free. I bought a pre-publication copy and what follows is my summary of the book.

This is not a review - for that, go here. For Malcolm Gladwell's slating of Free, go here

My opinion is that this is an important book because of its subject but does only half its job. It belies its journalistic origins and its argument runs out of coherence. The last forty of the 240 pages feel disjointed. This is what it says..

C21st Free different from C20th Free.

Latter about giving away products as short-term promotional gimmicks - Jell-O recipe books, Gillette razors - to encourage sales of underlying product - jelly, razor blades.

C21st Free - consequence of two laws - Moore's law in processing, storage & bandwidth; 1883 French mathematician Joseph Bertrand came up with Bertrand's Competition Law - In a competitive market, price falls to the marginal cost. Online where information is a commodity and goods and services can be easily copied, this law plays out to ultimate extent.

Moore's Law coined for processing. Also applies to storage & bandwidth. And it's processing which develops the slowest. Gordon Moore didn't coin the law. It was the work of Caltech professor Carver Mead.

"Never in the course of human history have the primary inputs to an industrial economy fallen in price so fast and for so long. This is the engine behind the new Free, the one that goes beyond a marketing gimmick or a cross-subsidy. In a world where prices always seem to go up, the cost of anything built on these three technologies will always go down. And keep going down, until it is as close to zero as possible."

Just as the computer industry took decades to understand the implications of Moore's Law, it will take decades more to understand the compounded consequences of Internet's connecting processing to bandwidth and storage. In that period, Anderson claims, the technologist's job not to figure out what technology is good for. It is to make technology so cheap, easy to use and ubiquitous that anybody can use it. We, the users, will figure out what to do with it because each of us is different. That seems to contradict his quote from Paul Graham - "Build something people want."

Stewart Brand

"on the one hand information wants to be expensive, because it's so valuable. The right informatin in the right place just changes your life. Oon the other hand, information wants to be free, because the cost of gettingit out is getting lower and lower all the time, So have these two fighting against each other."

Anderson claims this is the most important sentence of internet economy - it establishes economic link between technology and ideas. Moore's Law about physical machinery - but information is weightless commodity on which that machinery acts.

In the short term, the result of Free is destruction of traditional structures -

• Jeff Zucker, head of NBC Universal, said TV industry is terrified of "trading analog dollars for digital pennies."
• Craigslist has taken $30bn out of stock valuation of newspapers.
• Encyclopedia Britannica. When Encarta came along, it made $100million but shrank the market by $600million. Wikipedia means that in 2009 Microsoft killed Encarta.

Ultimately, Free is disruptive but leaves behind more efficient markets.

Paradoxes of Free most visible in music.

• In China, 95% of music is pirated. China Mobile reported a billion dollars of music revenue. MAnd In US, music revenues fell 15% 2008 and bottom nowhere in sight. Yet more bands making more music than ever before
• 2008 iTunes added 4million tracks, the equivalent of 400,000 albums.

Free & Advertising

Nature of advertising different online.

Old broadcast model - annoy 90% of audience not interested in your product to reach the 10% who might be.

Google model - use software to show the ad to people only for whom it's relevant

The six reasons for the end of paid content

1. Supply & Demand - supply has mushroomed but demand has not. Millions of Facebook pages all created with no expectation of pay
2. Loss of physical form - as content moved from atoms to bits, it became intangible even abstract
3. Ease of Access - easier to download content than it is to find it and buy it in stores
4. Shift to ad-supported content - habits set on Web carry over into daily life. If content is free online, why shouldn't it be free elsewhere?
5. Computer industry wants content to be free - Apple makes money selling iPods, not music files.
6. Generation Free - under30s have digital economics hard-wired in.

Gaming a petri dish for Free, and the industry to watch for innovative new business models. Some of the business models thrown up by the gaming industry:-

• selling virtual assets - World Of Warcraft gold
• subscriptions - club penguin
• advertising - in game advertising
• real estate - second life
• merchandise - webkinz

Why does Google default to free? Because it's the biggest way to reach the biggest possible audience and achieve mass adoption

This is Eric Schmidt's "Max Strategy". The result is a corporation that makes more profit than all airlines and car companies combined.

Companies lose money with most people and make it back with a relative few. By adopting the max strategy, they get to a point where that relative few is thousands or millions of people. That's the case if they are the market leader. And if they're not? "making money around Free when you don't have millions of users (and sometimes when you do) is a matter of creative thinking and constant experimentation."

The internet business model pioneered by e.g. Google had four steps:

1. Have great idea
2. Raise funds to bring it to market, ideally for free to reach largest possible audience
3. If it proves popular, raise more funds to scale it up
4. Repeat until you get bought by a bigger company

now 2 to 4 are no longer available, web startups have to do the unthinkable - come up with a business model that brings in money while they're still young.

The principle of a niche premium offering on top of the free material is called freemium, a phrase Anderson attributes to NYC VC Fred Wilson - paid version of free service. Wilson denies coining the phrase.

Anderson's own experience with open source software/hardware suggests model is

1. build community around free info and advice on particular topic
2. with community's help, design some products that people want and return favour by making those products free in raw form
3. let those with more money than time/skill/risk tolerance pay for more polished version of those products
4. do it again and again, building 40% profit margin into the products to pay the bills

VC Josh Kopelmann First Round Capital - the penny gap - the biggest gap in any venture is that between a service that is free and one that costs a penny. Free forsakes direct revenues but grants possiblity of mass sampling. A free product can go viral, paid can't. Zero is one market, anything else is another.

The Ten Principles Of Abundance Thinking

1. if it's digital, sooner or later they're going to be free
2. atoms wuld like to be free but they're not so pushy about it
3. you can't stop Free
4. you can make money from Free
5. Redefine your market
6. Round down
7. sooner or later you will compete with Free
8. Embrace waste
9. Free makes other things more valuable
10. manage for abundance not scarcity

Here goes

When I first started training for the Florence Marathon, I found a quote which really inspired me. It was from the Stoic philosopher Epictetus.
"First say to yourself what you would be. And then do what you have to do."

In fact, I thought it was so inspiring that I wrote it out on a scrap of paper which I safety pinned to my shirt before I set off.


And ever since then, I've not had an event to train for. So that's about to change. Here's the schedule of events in which I'm planning to participate over the next fifteen months:

Sept 2009 Bristol Half Marathon
Nov 2009 Athens Marathon
Mar 200 Bath Half Marathon
June 2010 Ironman (probably Ironman France or Ironman UK)
Sept 2010 Ironman 70.3 Monaco
Nov 2010 NYC Marathon

Of course, some of these might have to change because of work commitments, etc. And now I've said what I would be, I'd better start doing what I have to do.

Changes

To date, this blog has been a tedious account of training runs. I haven't written anywhere about what's happening in my working life, about the various adventures that I've had on my recent travels and about the extraordinary changes going on around me in both everyday life and - even more dramatically - the business in which I work.

All of that is about to change.

Service Resumed

So what happened? It's more than eight months since I posted on this site. In the meantime, I've

• Run the Florence marathon in November 2008. 4hrs 24.
• Blown up in the Bath half marathon, March 2009. I'd aimed to run it in under 100 mins, didn't train enough and went off too hard. The result was that I had to walk a lot of it and finished the course in a deeply unimpressive 2hrs 3mins.
• Been to the Middle East six times in the last six months
• Flown to Singapore and back twice
• Rounded off all that travel with a trip to Belgium at the beginning of June.

Eleanor came home from her residential course with gifts for everyone. A notebook for her mum, a pencil for her brother. I got a bar of chocolate. Strangely, though, a third of the bar was missing...

An Accidental Eighteen Miles

Here's the first non-running post. It's from an email that I received yesterday
"Building the Creative Business Graduates and Friends

I am pleased to tell you of a new two-day executive education programme at London Business School called Growing Your Business. Modelled after the award-winning course we run annually for the Young Presidents’ Organisation, this programme assists entrepreneurs and executives running fast-growing businesses in managing the challenges that rapid growth always brings. Designed for entrepreneurs (attending solo) or their top management teams (attending as a team), the course will send participants back to the office on the following Monday with a prioritized growth plan in hand.

Growing Your Business will bring together entrepreneurs and executives from around the world to wrestle interactively with real-world case studies dealing with the challenges of high growth. Meeting the protagonists in some of these cases – live, face-to-face – will bring to life the issues they faced and how they addressed them. And building new relationships with others on the programme will extend your global network as only London Business School does so well.

With big companies likely to scale back in the face of today’s economic turmoil, the stage is set for entrepreneurs to take advantage of a less competitive marketplace. My London Business School colleague John Mullins and I hope many in the BCB community running fast-growing businesses, and/or their teams, will join us in February at the School."

I received this because of the course that I did at the London Business School at the end of 2005. I'm not going to do this course - it costs nearly three grand. But it's the sentence at the end of the last para that really intrigued me.

And in the meantime, while I haven't blogged, I've been a lot better at running. Eighteen miles on Saturday, then another six on Monday. I've got 16 miles lined up with Thom Bunting for this afternoon.

CBA

7 miles. Should have been 13. Got cold and bored.

Compromise

I've got myself tangled up here.
I'm in London Tues and Weds next week, the days of my long run. And the kids are with me this weekend.

I'm supposed to have done 4 miles yesterday and 6 tomorrow. So instead I got up early, while Rona and Paddy were able to provide babysitting cover, and ran 5.

5.2 miles at 9.11 a mile.

I found myself at Morrisons at 8.02am, buying dog biscuits.

Now there's a first.

Running Into The Dark

12 miles tonight.

First time that I've run with Thom Bunting. He's the guy whose idea this was in the first place.
Great. Like sitting in the pub chatting.

And when I told my mum I was doing this marathon, her line was
"Why are you doing that?"

22nd September

This evening I ran 4.01 and then did a bit more.

This was to make up for last night when I was supposed to run 6 and I ran 5.8.

5 miles

So much for writing about stuff other than training.

Out to The George in the autumn sunshine. 5 miles

Tuesday

First say to yourself what you would be;
and then do what you have to do.

Epictetus

I don't want this blog simply to be a dry account of pratice runs completed. I was standing in Waterstones looking at a triathlon book. Next to it was a training diary with a number of quotes in it. This one really sprang to my eye. I'm writing this before I head out for this week's long run - 11miles due. Now, once upon a time, six months ago, that was a huge distance. It still is. But it was also far beyond my ken. The first time that I ran 11 miles was the Bath Half marathon. Somehow, it doesn't seem quite as daunting as it once did. There's another quote, a Japanese proverb that I grabbed out of this morning's Times newspaper - "Giving birth to a baby is easier than worrying about it." I'm not going to pass judgement on whether giving birth is easy or not (from first hand experience, I'd say that it isn't.) But I think I get the point of this.

(Update)
Back in.

11 miles done. Slow tonight, 10mins 20 per mile average. REALLY hurt.

4 miles plus, avg 9 min miles

I left the house just after the headlines about the collapse of Lehman Brothers on the evening news. Within minutes of starting, the story seemed so far away.

I still struggle with the beginning of each run. The first mile or so always feels like impossibly hard work and I wonder whether I can continue or not. Then the rythmn appears and I can keep going.

I reckon that there is a base level of fitness that people start to acquire when they want to get fit. Above that, there is a really high degree of almost superhuman fitness that is a mixture of genetics and way above average commitment (remember the morning at Bath University pool where I spotted the size 14 green flip flops that had been left by the side of the pool by someone who'd been training since 6am).
And in between those two points, it's all down to the mind.

Walk Of Shame

Out the door at 7.45 this morning, ran 5 miles. Just me and a whole bunch of people going home after a Saturday night out.

I'm running 9 min miles at the moment.

I Had That Tiger Woods...

In my ear yesterday afternoon. He said to me "Congratulations. You've just done your fastest ever mile."

And I managed to fall off my bike. 

And today I walked into town to buy Jamie's new football boots. On the way I saw Rachel and mark with her children from another life following on behind, their mum and new dad arm in arm in grim silence. 

And the photo that I took of the two girls in Allsport.